帝国反击战 The Empire strikes back

《欧洲论坛》报2023年9月9日讯：月有盈缺，潮有涨落，帝国兴衰更迭，但有些帝国却再次崛起。又一个属于中国的时代到来了。尽管已经采取措施试图阻止，但最近发生的一件事证明这些措施并未见效。

2022年8月，美国总统拜登签署第14080号行政令，表面上是为了促进美国国内半导体产业的发展，实际目的却是阻止中国发展。仅仅一个月后，第14083号行政令又旨在阻止中国获得既可用于军事用途也可用于智能手机、智能汽车和几乎所有其他智能产品的技术。

白宫承认，这些行政令以及国会通过的其他法案并不是为了保护和帮助美国工业，而是为了减缓中国的发展。

然而，这并没有奏效。中国正在成为全球经济的领头羊，其PPP(购买力平价)几年前就已超过美国，名义GDP的增长速度和强度也超过了美国，中国最早可能在2028年跃居全球第一。中国在农业和制造业产出方面也遥遥领先，而美国则在服务业方面遥遥领先。

从去年10月的一条推文可以明显看出，至少有一些科技专家和中国观察人士相信，由于这些行政令和国会法案的签署，中国的科技产业完蛋了。该推文的相关帖子获得了超过81500个“点赞”和近27000次转发。那些发表评论的人都非常赞同：中国完了！

虽然一些亲中的账号宣称这将使中国更加强大，但也有一些显然对中国不友好的人对此表示怀疑。大多数了解中国的人都相信一件事，尽管在当时许多人看来似乎不太可能发生，那就是，中国将变得更加强大。

不到一年时间，这一刻就到来了。华为，一家因业务出色而屡受制裁的公司，低调推出了纯“中国制造”的Mate 60 Pro手机，并借此实现了几个目标：证明了科技界的错误；生产出了一款畅销手机；在因美国制裁而失去全球顶级手机品牌地位后，重新跻身全球顶级手机品牌行列，极大地增强了中国人的自豪感。

发布的时机绝非巧合。毫无疑问，当时正在北京访问的美国商务部长吉娜·雷蒙多已经意识到，她的部门未能成功遏制中国，特别是华为。

简单来说，这款手机是一款5G智能手机，使用华为自主研发的鸿蒙4.0操作系统。西方人已经习惯于选择iOS和安卓系统，而中国人则有第三种选择，即鸿蒙系统。该系统能够访问华为的另一项创新——盘古AI系统。此外，拨打卫星电话的费用仅为每分钟8元人民币，约合美元1:20。

对中国人来说，纯“中国制造”所代表的意义极其重大，包括7纳米麒麟9000s芯片在内的10000个零部件全部国产。这一刻与1792/93年马戛尔尼使团访华一样，是中国历史上的重要时刻。马戛尔尼使团展示了英国工业革命的所有优越性，但遭到了乾隆皇帝的拒绝。现在回想起来，这也许是中国的一个错误决定，因为这一拒绝最终为鸦片战争和中国的“百年屈辱”创造了条件。

华为手机的成功被视为中国扭转了这一局面。2019年，特朗普签署行政令，禁止华为使用安卓系统。这本应有效摧毁华为的手机业务，然而并没有。

华为随即推出了自有操作系统“鸿蒙”。此后，拜登下令禁止全球芯片供应商向华为出售芯片。于是，中国最大的芯片制造商中芯国际开始自主生产芯片，华为把它们装进Mate 60 Pro。推出这款手机当天，线下商店不到一小时，网上平台短短几分钟内，80万部手机全部售罄。华为还宣布了更多好消息：一周内，他们的手机累计出货量突破1亿部。

华为于2011年第四季度进入智能手机市场，占据了总销量的3.5%；2020年第二季度，该品牌超越三星，成为全球最受欢迎的手机，但随后美国对其实施了制裁。因此，在该季度占据整个智能手机市场20%的份额后，到2022年第一季度，他们就彻底出局了。对于许多公司来说，这无异于穷途末路。但与许多其他公司不同，华为是一个非常与众不同、非常有韧性的组织。

华为的员工也是公司的所有者，这看似不寻常也没什么特别，但《华为基本法》中的一些规定却值得玩味。如果员工在公司工作满8年，则可以在45岁退休，并且可以保留自己的股份。如果他们想离开去另一家公司，就要归还股份。而且，根据公司内部的学术报告，他们吸引、留住了最优秀的人才。许多员工觉得自己要像顶级运动员一样努力工作，以保持最佳状态。

这是华为的成功故事，更是中国的巨大成功。当《沃尔夫修正案》将中国排除在空间站之外，甚至连美国智库都认为这是一个错误的决定时，中国建造了自己的空间站；当受到世界上最大规模、最昂贵的军事力量威胁时，中国建立了更强大的防御性军队；当中国的杰出产品在全球舞台上被剥夺商业机会时，中国创造出一个环境，使其在国际和国内市场上仍能超越美国产品。

这不仅仅是商业上的成功；它向我们证明，帝国可以反击，帝国正在归来。

(作者：杰瑞·格雷)

The Empire strikes back

EUROP’S TRIBUNE WEEKLY :

The moon waxes and wanes, the tide ebbs and flows, empires come and go but some empires come more than once. This is, once again, China’s time. While there have been moves to prevent this from continuing one recent event proves they are unsuccessful.

        In August 2022, Executive order 14080 ostensibly aimed to boost USA’s domestic Semiconductor industry was nothing of the sort, it was aimed to stop China from developing. Just a month later Executive Order 14083 was designed to prevent China obtaining the technology which Could be used in military applications but is also used in smartphones, smart cars and pretty much everything else that might be considered smart.

These executive orders along with other Bills passing through Congress are not designed to protect and help US industry, they are, by the admission of the White House designed to slow China.

         However, it isn’t working. China is emerging as the global leader in economy, with a Price Purchasing Parity which overtook USA several years ago, a nominal GDP which is growing faster and stronger than the USA and could land China in the No1 slot as early as 2028. China is also way ahead in agricultural and manufacturing output while the US is by far ahead on services.

         In a tweet last October it was clear that at least some tech experts and China watchers were confident, as a result of these Executive Orders and Congressional Bills, that the Chinese tech industry was finished. The tweet’s associated thread gathered over 81,500 “likes” and almost 27,000 reposts. Those that were commentating were very much in agreement; China was done!

        While some pro-China accounts pronounced it would make China stronger, there were some interesting takes from people who obviously have no love for China questioning the possibility of something that most people who know China, knew would happen; a future event that, to many at the time, seemed unlikely; China would emerge stronger.

Less than one year later that moment arrived. Huawei, a company that has been targeted with sanction after sanction just for being good at what they do, without much fanfare, delivered the fully “made in China” Mate 60 Pro Mobile Phone. In doing so they achieved several goals; they proved the tech world wrong; they produced a sell-out phone; they have regained their place among the top brands in mobile phones globally after losing it due to US sanctions and have given a much-needed boost to Chinese pride.

        The timing of the release was hardly a coincidence, US Commerce Secretary, Gina Raimondo was in Beijing and would undoubtedly have been made aware of her department’s failure to contain China and in particular, Huawei.

       Without getting too technical, the phone is a 5G smartphone using Huawei’s own Harmony 4.0 operating system. People in the West have become used to a choice of iOS and Android, people in China have a third option, the Harmony system which has the ability to access another Huawei innovation, the PanGu Artificial Intelligence system. Oh, and as an additional extra, it will make satellite calls for only 8RMB per minute, that’s about US$1:20.

       What fully “made in China” represents to the people of China is hugely important, 10,000 parts, all domestically made including the 7nm, Kirin 9000 Chip. This is as important a moment in Chinese history as the Macartney Embassy to China of 1792/93. That mission showcased all that was good from the British Industrial Revolution but was rejected by the Qianglong Emperor. Perhaps, in retrospect, a poor decision by China because that rejection ultimately created the conditions leading to the Opium Wars and China’s “Century of Humiliation”.

       Huawei’s success in creating a mobile phone is seen as the moment China reverses this. In 2019, Trump signed an Executive Order which banned Huawei from using Android, That should have effectively destroyed Huawei’s mobile phone business. But it didn’t.

        Huawei came back with its own “Harmony” operating system. Then, under Biden, suppliers of chips globally were forbidden to sell to Huawei, so, China’s SMIC manufactured its own. Huawei put them into the Mate 60 Pro and launched it that day, it sold out, within an hour in the stores and minutes online all 800,000 of them were sold. Huawei had more good news to announce, the same week they had shipped 100 million cumulative phones.

         Huawei entered the smartphone market in Q4 2011 and captured 3.5% of total sales; in Q2 of 2020 the brand overtook Samsung to be the world’s most popular phone but then the US stepped in with sanctions. So, after capturing 20% of the entire smartphone market in that quarter, they were out of the running completely by Q1 2022. For many companies that would have been the end of the road. But Huawei is not like many other companies, it’s a very different and very resilient organisation.

       Huawei employees are the owners of the company, that in itself, while unusual is not unique, some of the rules in “Huawei’s Basic Law” are interesting. An employee may retire at 45 years of age if they have worked for the company for 8 years and they may keep their shares. If they want to leave and go to another company, they return their shares. And, according to academic reports from inside the organisation, they attract the best, retain the best and many employees consider themselves to work as hard as the top level athletes, in order to remain as the best.

      This is a success story for Huawei, but it is a huge success for China. When excluded from the Space Station by the Wolf Amendment, which even US think tanks decry as a poor decision, China built their own. When threatened by the world’s largest and most expensive military, China built a bigger, defensive military, when a stellar product of China is denied business opportunities on the global stage, China creates the environment whereby it can still outperform US products both internationally and domestically.

      This isn’t just a commercial success; this is evidence, the empire can strike back and the empire is returning.

      (Jerry Grey)